Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Falsie x2
These anomalies are almost hilarious. Can't someone investigate this and just "clean it up". The noise is irritating :)
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Eric De Groot: State pension system near collapse
Eric De Groot: State pension system near collapse
Ouch...and only 46 of 50 states have a budget problem on par with Greece. Nothing to see here!
Monday, June 28, 2010
Great read from the boys at Zero Hedge
The BIS seems to be playing hardball here:
BIS Blasts Fed's ZIRP Policy, Warns About Negative Side Effects From Extended Low Interest Rates
Updating the charts..
Based on the action today, I'm having another look at things. Weak weak weak...and if it stays this way, this option may play out. Target shown is for wave 3.
And another update..bit of a close up on the 4hr chart:
XAU - gold/silver sector
Robin Griffiths
Great interview found here:
Key points - Turn point is July 26 in his opinion, rally up to about 1150, but not above, then ugliness throughout the rest of the year and next.
FT Alphaville- Guest post: El-Erian on a disappointing G20 compromise
Another must read from Mohamad El-Erian:
Sunday, June 27, 2010
RBS tells clients to prepare for "monster" money printing by the Federal Reserve - Telegraph
If QE about to shift into overdrive, the stock market is going to rip higher IMHO. It will not pay to have money in savings..you will be eaten by inflation. On the flipside, if the QE experiment comes to an abrupt halt, perhaps due to the shifting political tide in the US, then a severe deflation is in the cards. These are critical times for investors seeking to preserve their wealth. Much more from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard follows:
"The ECRI leading indicator produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute plummeted yet again last week to -6.9, pointing to contraction in the US by the end of the year. It is dropping faster that at any time in the post-War era.
The latest data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau shows that world trade slid 1.7pc in May, with the biggest fall in Asia. The Baltic Dry Index measuring freight rates on bulk goods has dropped 40pc in a month. This is a volatile index that can be distorted by the supply of new ships, but those who watch it as an early warning signal for China and commodities are nervous.
The latest data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau shows that world trade slid 1.7pc in May, with the biggest fall in Asia. The Baltic Dry Index measuring freight rates on bulk goods has dropped 40pc in a month. This is a volatile index that can be distorted by the supply of new ships, but those who watch it as an early warning signal for China and commodities are nervous.
Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS, is advising clients to read the Bernanke text very closely (http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm)
because the Fed is soon going to have to the pull the lever on 'monster' quantitative easing (QE)'.
We cannot stress enough how strongly we believe that a cliff-edge may be around the corner, for the global banking system (particularly in Europe) and for the global economy. Think the unthinkable,' he said in a note to investors."
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Friday, June 25, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Yuan Falls Most Since December 2008 - Bloomberg
But that's not supposed to happen! Everyone is thinking the Yuan will rise. CBC radio said this last night. Problem is, Europe is China's largest trading partner, NOT the US.
Europe has been implementing austerity measures, meaning they will exit this recession (depression) first...so China is moving their currency into position to re-align with this outcome.
This is speculation of course, as one day's movement does not make a viable trend, but it is logical!
Monday, June 21, 2010
Germany and France examine 'two-tier' euro - Telegraph
Germany and France examine 'two-tier' euro - Telegraph
OK! I need everyone's input on this one. It's bothered me for some time, and I "think" I instinctively know the answer, but here it is:
If quantitative easing goes ahead full steam, forcing interest rates to stay low, resulting in the precipitous devaluation of currencies, what is the stock market going to do? I'm pretty certain what gold and silver will do..but what about the markets!?!? If the bond vigilantes liquidate, where will they park their money?
Leave a comment with your thoughts!
Leave a comment with your thoughts!
UPDATE: Some good analysis on this topic follows here: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2010/06/inflation-vs-deflation-revisited.html
Sunday, June 20, 2010
California on 'verge of system failure’ - The Globe and Mail
California on 'verge of system failure’ - The Globe and Mail
Those "in the know" are not surprised by this at all, the awakening of the general public will have predictable results for the fabric of society.
Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard spells it out in his usual gripping prose:
Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels
Gold reclaims its currency status as the global system unravels
Some interesting stories for this fine Father's Day
Happy fathers day to all the dads! Wish I had better news today..but it's whats on the menu:
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Be The Hyena. Attack The Wildebeast.
A fascinating read..I'm certain that each of us can relate many personal experiences to each of the principles laid out by Rady Dalio:
Friday, June 18, 2010
Morning chart...
Have we seen, or are we about to see A? Time will tell, place your bets accordingly.
And a longer term silver outlook:
And a longer term silver outlook:
Greenspan Says U.S. May Soon Reach Borrowing Limit - Bloomberg
Greenspan Says U.S. May Soon Reach Borrowing Limit - Bloomberg:
"“The federal government is currently saddled with commitments for the next three decades that it will be unable to meet in real terms,” Greenspan said. The “very severity of the pending crisis and growing analogies to Greece set the stage for a serious response.”"
Ok, so how about nominal terms? Got gold?
"“The federal government is currently saddled with commitments for the next three decades that it will be unable to meet in real terms,” Greenspan said. The “very severity of the pending crisis and growing analogies to Greece set the stage for a serious response.”"
Ok, so how about nominal terms? Got gold?
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow Peter Brimelow - MarketWatch
Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow Peter Brimelow - MarketWatch
Good 'ol Robert Prechter! Pretty impressive statistical returns..though not of the "OH MY GOSH" type, they are still beating the markets. The conclusion is classic Prechter:
There will be a short-term rally at some point, thinks Prechter, but it will be a trap: "The 7.25-year and 20-year cycles are both scheduled to top in 2012, suggesting that 2012 will mark the last vestiges of self-destructive hope. Then the final years of decline will usher in capitulation and finally despair."
Good 'ol Robert Prechter! Pretty impressive statistical returns..though not of the "OH MY GOSH" type, they are still beating the markets. The conclusion is classic Prechter:
There will be a short-term rally at some point, thinks Prechter, but it will be a trap: "The 7.25-year and 20-year cycles are both scheduled to top in 2012, suggesting that 2012 will mark the last vestiges of self-destructive hope. Then the final years of decline will usher in capitulation and finally despair."
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
CAPE, Tobin q, Imply Market Is 48% Overvalued | zero hedge
Hrm...48% over valued...with a bit of undershoot brings us to...350 or so on the S&P?
CAPE, Tobin q, Imply Market Is 48% Overvalued | zero hedge
CAPE, Tobin q, Imply Market Is 48% Overvalued | zero hedge
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
BULLS ON PARADE
Updated chart today...the bearish tilt previously posted is gone gone gone gone....
I went short at the apex of a now-defunct triangle @ around 1092-ish. Little pain here, some there... ouch. Now waiting for the remainder of the pattern to play out, and maintain my short position until it completes. Then..going long with a bit of my cash...which would have been the trade today (congrats Al if you read this ;)).
Here's the updated "look". Basically, I think this breakout will re-test the downward trendline in the area labelled as "B". It may not reach there, or stop there, but if it does turn higher from that point then C is a likely target. "C" is 1.618x higher than the peak of "A" On to the chart:
I went short at the apex of a now-defunct triangle @ around 1092-ish. Little pain here, some there... ouch. Now waiting for the remainder of the pattern to play out, and maintain my short position until it completes. Then..going long with a bit of my cash...which would have been the trade today (congrats Al if you read this ;)).
Here's the updated "look". Basically, I think this breakout will re-test the downward trendline in the area labelled as "B". It may not reach there, or stop there, but if it does turn higher from that point then C is a likely target. "C" is 1.618x higher than the peak of "A" On to the chart:
Oh, and I really like silver right now:
Monday, June 14, 2010
Oil Spill information...
From Alex Jones comes Lindsey Williams. Now, I know what you may be thinking about these sources, but hear it out. If only half of this has merit, it's still just... awful
.
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
Great analysis..
So, seeing things playing out tonight in the expected fasion, a throw-over of that triangle, and just "lingering", I thought I'd go through my email to see if the Elliot trader on youtube posted an update. Sure enough, it t'was there. Really superb presentation of Elliot Wave.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Friday, June 11, 2010
Charts in review...
In summary, I'm glad I held onto some shorts into Monday..gonna ride this out a bit. Weekend chart porn:
Er no, wait, that's "We all see what we want to see" over at dump.com. ;) On to the charts:
Notice how the highlighted section is not the only similarity in these waveforms, but the entire inverted head and shoulders pattern that precedes it as well.
A little more perspective:
Bigger picture:
Er no, wait, that's "We all see what we want to see" over at dump.com. ;) On to the charts:
Notice how the highlighted section is not the only similarity in these waveforms, but the entire inverted head and shoulders pattern that precedes it as well.
A little more perspective:
Bigger picture:
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Who knows?
Perhaps we just had to run this channel up, fail at reaching the upper trend line (cuz we hit it a week ago) and now on to big beautiful red candles!?! Been a long time since I've seen the Stoch and William's pegged in overbought all day..was like they were sucking the bulls in for the slaughter. We'll know more tomorrow as "our stomachs turn"
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Monday, June 7, 2010
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Saturday, June 5, 2010
On the Edge with Paul Craig Roberts
Max Keiser has a fascinating interview with Paul Craig Roberts :
G20: The Time For Stimulus Is Over, Long Live Fiscal Austerity
This market is cooked. Watch out below...
G20: The Time For Stimulus Is Over, Long Live Fiscal Austerity
Friday, June 4, 2010
'Go for the Jugular'
Absolutely fascinating rendition of the events that lead to the collapse of the British Pound and how George Soros and team pulled it off. Ask yourself, when you are right, is there no such thing as betting too much, or do you pile on as hard as possible?
"Druckenmiller walked into Soros's office and told him it was time to move. He had held a $1.5 billion bet against the pound since August, but now the endgame was coming and he would build on the position steadily.
Soros listened and looked puzzled. 'That doesn't make sense,' he objected.
'What do you mean?' Druckenmiller asked.
Well, Soros responded, if the Schlesinger quotes were accurate, why just build steadily? 'Go for the jugular,' Soros advised him.
Druckenmiller could see that Soros was right: Indeed, this was the man's genius. Druckenmiller had done the analysis, understood the politics, and seen the trigger for the trade; but Soros was the one who sensed that this was the moment to go nuclear. When you knew you were right, there was no such thing as betting too much. You piled on as hard as possible."
Soros listened and looked puzzled. 'That doesn't make sense,' he objected.
'What do you mean?' Druckenmiller asked.
Well, Soros responded, if the Schlesinger quotes were accurate, why just build steadily? 'Go for the jugular,' Soros advised him.
Druckenmiller could see that Soros was right: Indeed, this was the man's genius. Druckenmiller had done the analysis, understood the politics, and seen the trigger for the trade; but Soros was the one who sensed that this was the moment to go nuclear. When you knew you were right, there was no such thing as betting too much. You piled on as hard as possible."
3 Days Into The Month = $169 Billion Of Debt Redeemed
Hope everyone had a good day today! Now go out and buy buy buy....cuz it really only goes up right? Here are your cheery thoughts for the day from the 'hedge:
"Total US debt today was $13.06 trillion. Total debt on March 6, 2009 was $10.95 trillion. The government has spent $2.1 trillion dollars to create a bear market rally which has now fizzled, and to fund a fiscal stimulus that is now dancing its death rattle. GDP will now gradually roll over, the unemployment rate will once again start increasing, diffusion indices, manufacturing and all other economic output will begin declining, but not before the bill is in. It cost Americans $2.1 trillion in debt to generate a 14 months sugar high (for which all will promptly receive a much higher tax bill). Luckily, we will never pay this debt off, so perhaps "the joke is on them" after all."
50 Statistics About The U.S. Economy That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe
Absolutely insane. Just who do these bright Canadian economists think we are going to export to?
50 Statistics About The U.S. Economy That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe
50 Statistics About The U.S. Economy That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe
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