David Rosenberg on Bloomberg. Sounding as bearish as always...he is a beacon in times of spin.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Spain is trapped in a 'perverse spiral' as wage cuts deepen the crisis - Telegraph
The troubled sovereigns are getting larger and larger...the crisis is only just beginning..
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Hosed in Canada; Housing Crash is a Given
Here are the goods from Mish, read and weep for all of you who are overleveraged going into the second downleg of this crisis. Canada is NOT different.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Marc Faber
Giving a presentation on May 22nd at the Mises Institute. Over an hour long, but WELL WORTH IT.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Today..and the next few days...
Ok, here it is. It's self explanatory, I hope. I got damaged a bit today, was not fun. There are some pretty clear entries and exits here with stops above/below some key areas. Will see how things are looking in the AM, stickin to the plan that executes on one of these options. Most are calling for a rally into the 1120 area, at minimum.
Monday, May 24, 2010
Korean Markets Fall 3.3%, As Kim Jong Il Tells Military To Prepare For War
Korean Markets Fall 3.3%, As Kim Jong Il Tells Military To Prepare For War
Yikes! If this is the famed Elliot P3, it will not leave many opportunities to play bounces. Bounces should be shorted!
Gold needs mojo here..
If this wedge breaks down, 1146 would be on deck and 1157.6 is fib support/resistance. This may coincide with a much weaker performance on all the indices tomorrow if the futures hold up...
Gold may react opposite the general market direction however, and it could be argued that the gold chart has seen a clear 5 wave move down and is due for a bounce. It never reached the 61.8% fib, which could be interpreted as a sign of strength. The ascending triangle shown in this chart has a 70% upside breakout potential. The RSI still has room to go, sitting @ 60. Would like to see a move into the 70's or 80's!
Best of luck
Stepping back a bit...
Seems awfully cocky to be calling a new bull market here...not saying it can't be done but...
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Europe's deflation torture is a gift to the Far Left - Telegraph
Europe's deflation torture is a gift to the Far Left - Telegraph
Happy times!
The only way out is for the European Central Bank to lift Club Med off the deflation reefs by monetary stimulus, and allow these economies to work off their debt in an orderly fashion without shrinking nominal GDP. That means quantitative easing a l’outrance - not "sterilising" bond purchases it has done so far - and that in turn means that Germany must accept 5pc inflation.
Will Germans tolerate such an outcome? The civil peace of Europe demands that they do, but I am not hopeful. The Bundestag vote to authorise Germany’s €147bn share of the EMU "shield" has already caused apoplexy. "One of the gravest errors of decision in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany," said Hans Werner Sinn, head of the IFO Institute.
Bavarian politician Peter Gauweiler is launching a legal challenge at Germany’s constitutional court to block the rescue, arguing that the "contractual foundations of monetary policy" as fixed by the Maastricht Treaty have been breached. The legal cases are piling up. It is remarkable that so much time has been spent by City analysts combing through Greek data to gauge the risk of default, yet so little time has been spent thinking about these cases at Karlsruhe. How many have read the court’s rulings on Maastricht and Lisbon? Yet the "tail-risk" is nuclear.
The North-South divide within EMU has been allowed to go so far that any solution must now be offensive to either side, and therefore will be resisted. The euro is becoming an engine of intra-European tribal hatred. Brilliant work, Monsieur Delors.
For the Elliot Wave Followers
Excellent video about the current state of the union from an Elliot Wave perspective from ElliotTrader. If this is your bag, I would highly suggest subscribing for his frequent updates. His YouTube channel can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/user/ElliottTrader
Saturday, May 22, 2010
Jim Rickards
You should really listen to this interview from Jim Rickards. If you have money in this market, you owe it to yourself to be knowledgeable of these topics. Best of luck.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Where we're at
Interesting to say the least! The markets are on some MAJOR lines here.
This is the SPX for the last 20 years. See that yellow line intersecting the 2003 bottom? We're below it now, major breakage.
This is the hourly view.
Have fun out there!
This is the SPX for the last 20 years. See that yellow line intersecting the 2003 bottom? We're below it now, major breakage.
This is the last two years, next stop after the major 20 yr trendline is the next yellow line as shown below. 1064 on the SPX is the level to watch.
This is the hourly view.
Have fun out there!
Canada's Real Estate Market Bubbly
OK, for the LAST TIME, there is no bubble in Canada. Son of a...you mean the realtor's association is lying to me? The paper's are lying too cuz they need the ad revenue? The politicians are lying cuz they need the votes? I want the blue pill please!
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Mortgages that are Not Being Renewed | Million Dollar Journey
Circle of debt...doesn't always go 'round. Aww, poor lenders don't want to renew unless the taxpayer guarantees success? Pfft!
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
CMHC: Canada's Freddie and Fannie? - Diane Francis
CMHC: Canada's Freddie and Fannie? - Diane Francis
Here's an email that was sent to her:
Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/archive/2009/10/21/cmhc-canada-s-freddie-and-fannie.aspx#ixzz0nsYMtNff
And this...
Here's an email that was sent to her:
Dear Diane
I read your column with great interest.
In my just published book “Relentless Change: A Casebook for the Study of Canadian History” which goes to 2005 I wrote,
“In terms of organization, the federal government had not privatized the large financial crown corporations as it had privatized the non-financial corporations. The same five large financial crown corporations were still in existence – CMHC, the Bank of Canada, EDC, FCC and the Business Development Bank of Canada [formerly called the Federal Development Bank] – and all five were among the largest financial institutions in the land[1].
The largest of these five by far in 2005 was CMHC, with assets of over $100 billion. In the mid 1980s, CMHC had grown much more rapidly than most corporations in the public or private sector because of lower eligibility requirements for mortgages. As a consequence of this growth the corporation became more than twice the size of the Bank of Canada.”
In the next to last draft i also made the point that it was as large as such major private sector corporations as National Bank and Great West Life.
However 13 months ago when the credit crisis was just starting i thought the exposure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac @ $5 trillion was significantly greater than CMHC but your article has me thinking again.
Thank you for that.
Joe Martin, Director of Canadian Business History,
Rotman School of Management
Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/archive/2009/10/21/cmhc-canada-s-freddie-and-fannie.aspx#ixzz0nsYMtNff
And this...
Truly disgusting!
A couple of weeks ago, Peter Routledge of credit analyst Moody’s pointed out that the overheating of the housing market was goosing an unsustainable increase in household borrowing more generally. “As witnessed in the United States,” he wrote, “this movie does not end well.” Specifically, once the punchbowl of low interest rates disappears, households find themselves in trouble, and so do their bankers.
Mr. Routledge noted that Canadian banks likely wouldn’t wind up in the same depths as their U.S. counterparts, but that is only because their riskiest mortgages are backstopped by CMHC. But this makes the systemic threat to the Canadian economy greater.
The U.S. crisis was massive but did not fall entirely on Fannie and Freddie. It was shared with other financial institutions. Nevertheless Fannie and Freddie both failed and had to be taken into government “conservatorship.” Mr. Routledge suggests that the situation is more “secure” in Canada, but as a recent report from the Fraser Institute points out, what this really means that the Canadian system features “massive taxpayer exposure.”
Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2010/02/11/peter-foster-canada-moral-hazard-corp.aspx#ixzz0nsUEABGI
And yet more can be found here:
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009/10/22/BubbleWillBurst/
Mr. Routledge noted that Canadian banks likely wouldn’t wind up in the same depths as their U.S. counterparts, but that is only because their riskiest mortgages are backstopped by CMHC. But this makes the systemic threat to the Canadian economy greater.
The U.S. crisis was massive but did not fall entirely on Fannie and Freddie. It was shared with other financial institutions. Nevertheless Fannie and Freddie both failed and had to be taken into government “conservatorship.” Mr. Routledge suggests that the situation is more “secure” in Canada, but as a recent report from the Fraser Institute points out, what this really means that the Canadian system features “massive taxpayer exposure.”
Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2010/02/11/peter-foster-canada-moral-hazard-corp.aspx#ixzz0nsUEABGI
And yet more can be found here:
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009/10/22/BubbleWillBurst/
Some rumblings from the geo-political landscape
For your consideration. I would imagine that these stories will be gaining traction. Disintegration of the Euro? UK austerity and (or) disintegration of the pound? Why doesn't the Obama birth records story die? The Russians are smelling (and spilling) blood...and they are undoubtedly still feeling the sting of past defeats:
Investigators: Obama uses Connecticut Soc. Sec. Number
Investigators: Obama uses Connecticut Soc. Sec. Number
UK Daily Mail: Footage of Polish air crash 'shows Russians executing survivors'...
NATO code compromise from Polish plane crash
US faces same problems as Greece, says Bank of England – Telegraph Blogs
Ya don't say! FFSAKES this is not rocket science:
Garth Turner on housing in Canada
Yay Canada! We win! It's like golf right, higher numbers the better? Oh, that's not how? Well how then? ooOOOOoo I see..
Quote of the day..
From Dark @ optionblackboard.com:
"This market is like a fart underwater, it keeps coming up...but when it finally pops, get outta there."
Make it two quotes of the day..this one from the comments section at slopeofhope.com:
Though many feel it may, and some are sure it should, and a few are confident it must, the market may or may not go down ever again
"This market is like a fart underwater, it keeps coming up...but when it finally pops, get outta there."
Make it two quotes of the day..this one from the comments section at slopeofhope.com:
Though many feel it may, and some are sure it should, and a few are confident it must, the market may or may not go down ever again
Updated chart for today
78.6 Fib since the big dump is 1183.69, big bull trend line at around 1180...this is another pivotal day/week!
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
YouTube - May 11th 2010 Update.wmv
One point of view worth considering from HS Dent Economic Research
Canada's Household Debt Reaches Record $42,000 a Person; Fast and Furious Real Estate Decline Coming; Beijing Home Prices Plunge 31.4%
Nothing for Canadian's to worry about, buy buy buy cuz a) real estate only goes up b) interest rates are going to stay this way forever and c) it's different here - we had the Olympics don't ya know and d) our banking system is SOUND
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Pivotal Time for the market
Will it bounce off the major support of the bull trendline? Will it crack again? First the daily chart showing the major trendlines for this advance. See it just about to touch?
Now see it on the hourly..room to move..not looking too healthy...
Here Is Why the Fed Cannot Simply Continue to Inflate Its Way Out of Every Financial Crisis That It Creates
I dunno, Cramer and Kudlow tell me we're growing and going to explode higher, I think I'll believe them. =)
But, there's no FRAUD in Canada's housing market?!?!?!?!
At least that is what the mainstream media has been telling me..er, maybe because there is no punishment there is no crime? Oh, I have a lot to learn ;)
Monday, May 10, 2010
More Ambrose on the ECB "solution"
ECB risks its reputation and a German backlash over mass bond purchases - Telegraph
Watch out, Germany may derail the whole bail-out yet...or the populous will..
The lingering question..inflation or deflation?
Watch This Level-Headed Version Of Marc Faber Completely Disembowel The Logic Behind Europe's Bailout Fund
I am constantly torn between these two outcomes. Will we suffer a deflationary collapse on the backs of populism inspired political austerity? Will the governments simply paper over the mistakes of the past with fiat money? The latter is the path of least resistance..perhaps the truth is somewhere in between..
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Brian Williams on Wall Street’s Free Fall | The Big Picture
Not what you would expect from Brian Williams - "If I were not so close to this, I would probably not leave the house"
Friday, May 7, 2010
Jesse's Caf�Am�ricain: Steve Meyers Market Commentary
Good vid..must watch..could do without the religious references tho...
PIMCO - Viewpoints Mohamed El-Erian Understanding the Greek Aftershocks May 2010
PIMCO - Viewpoints Mohamed El-Erian Understanding the Greek Aftershocks May 2010:
Mohamed's conclusion:
"Where does all this leave us?
The Greek crisis has already morphed into a regional (eurozone) shock. It now stands on the verge of morphing into a more global phenomenon.
Some countries will benefit, mainly on account of capital flows coming out of the eurozone. The majority will not. And even those that do benefit should remain vigilant and responsive. Like most other countries in the world, they will also end up suffering from the consequences of lower international demand and renewed disruptions to the global banking system."
The Greek crisis has already morphed into a regional (eurozone) shock. It now stands on the verge of morphing into a more global phenomenon.
Some countries will benefit, mainly on account of capital flows coming out of the eurozone. The majority will not. And even those that do benefit should remain vigilant and responsive. Like most other countries in the world, they will also end up suffering from the consequences of lower international demand and renewed disruptions to the global banking system."
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Rep. Alan Grayson: You Own the Red Roof Inn, Thanks to the Fed; Why the Fed Does Not Want an Audit; America is Wall Street's Sucker
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Rep. Alan Grayson: You Own the Red Roof Inn, Thanks to the Fed; Why the Fed Does Not Want an Audit; America is Wall Street's Sucker
I wonder how many times this will happen in Canada? How many of those MBS or other assets worth $70Billion of notional value that the Bank of Canada bought off the banks last year look like this? Hrm...
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Pension Pulse: Greek Crisis Going Global?
Pension Pulse: Greek Crisis Going Global?
Very good read. Mohamed El-Erian speaks, I listen.
Today's wrap up.
Tim @ Slope of hope has such an even tone for the most part..even in the face of the events that are unfolding..
http://slopeofhope.com/2010/05/soap-opera.html
My favorite:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/headline-roundup-reactions-may-madness?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)
http://slopeofhope.com/2010/05/soap-opera.html
My favorite:
BusinessWire:
NYSE Unveils New Slogan: “The Market Can Stay Psychotic Longer Than You Can Stay Curled Up In A Fetal Position”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/headline-roundup-reactions-may-madness?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)
Yen to blame?
As of this writing none of the big trading houses has fessed up to adding a zero on an e-mini electronic order. We shall see. I think it was connected to a move in the Dollar/Yen. When that break occurred it triggered some algo machine to sell. And that happened when the NYSE had a halt. It was computers that are behind it. Mary Shapiro at the SEC has been very reluctant to tackle this issue. Not any more. Look for her to make a statement shortly. The axe is going to fall on an important part of how the markets function.
YouTube - dialing wand
YouTube - dialing wand
Kind of says it all about today...and this from Daneric, which is not a recent chart, but tells his view of the Elliot Wave outlook:
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Merkel’s Coalition Calls for EU ‘Orderly’ Defaults; Spain Prime Minister says Speculation of a Bailout for Spain is “Complete Madness”
The Eurozone, in it's present form is in danger...
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Merkel’s Coalition Calls for EU ‘Orderly’ Defaults; Spain Prime Minister says Speculation of a Bailout for Spain is “Complete Madness”
Does Anyone Remember 1931? - The Market Ticker �
Tell me how many comparable headlines you've seen lately?
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