Sunday, April 18, 2010

Weekend charts

It seems that with all the news of late, the rally is about to run out of steam.  Nothing is ever 100% certain, but it's look precarious enough that I entered some significant shorts this week.  First up, the TSX, which shows that it encountered the 61.8% Fib resistance at 12,223, posted an evening star candle on the weekly, and looks destined to fall back to the 50% fib at 11,318.  Reaching that level would break the current corrective triangle off the lows and in doing so, would possibly start the next major down phase of this market:

Next, the S&P 500 - it's just below the 61.8% retracement @ 1228, and doesn't show a rollover just yet on the WLR or RSI.  However, the red dashed line, indicating the last gap down on the SPX, is a target has been met. Zero Hedge posted this week that the 1930 rally rose to "just shy" of it's 61.8% retracement before losing >80% of it's value.  Will history repeat?


Lastly, XLF, which is the US banking index ETF.  Definitely a rollover candidate as it has only retraced to just above its 38.2% retracement at 16.92. RSI hasn't rolled over yet, but the WLR has.  Let's see if there are any more surprises on the Goldman, or other banks this week:


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