Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Mohammad El-Erian interview




I dunno, this guy just seems so rational to me ;)  Anyways, key point in this interview is this excerpt highlighted by Business Insider:


"7:25 The bond market is pricing in a buyer with a printing press, so it is not a leading indicator."


Where the logic behind this statement can be applied to this chart:























That said, I'm not 100% sold on the idea that the 10 year bond yield is useless as a leading indicator, just that the spread shown in this comparison chart between the SPX and the TNX is not as dramatic as it might appear.  The gap will be closed, the only question is how.

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