I heard an interesting data point last week, the kind that sticks in my head for days and breeds lots of additional thoughts and ideas; that the oil-dependent growth needed to pull various economies out of debt is greater than the oil in the ground to enable that growth. In other words, there is more debt than there is oil to power the necessary growth to overcome it. Given the stats on Global Peak Oil – a point that now appears to have passed last year or the year before (the end of needing 1 barrel of oil’s worth of energy to extract 10 barrels, and the beginning of a new era where it takes at least 3 to 4 barrels – and going higher) – combined with the revelations about there being another 20 trillion in debts not yet accounted for by governments and banks – and the mathematical certainty of this conundrum becomes clear.
There is no question in my mind that, as Dr. Michael Hudson and others have been saying for years, most of the debts plaguing economies around the world have to be abandoned. They will never be paid. The globe is one big Iceland. So what do we do? Do what Iceland did, and say to hell with the bankers and start over again. Or do we do what Ireland is doing – extend and pretend – and throw the keys of sovereignty over to international organizations like the IMF?
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